A second word about the situation with Iran
Think.
Ciao everybody. Happy Saturday.
My attempt to get back into my regular writing schedule was disrupted by the sudden and simultaneous happy arrival of life and career opportunities, which required careful time, consideration, and focus. It’s been an amazing few months in Los Angeles, contrary to our VP’s nihilist monologue yesterday. All of which is set against the backdrop of extraordinary chaos in the world, including a war between Israel and Iran.
As I said on Scene 7 a few days ago, I rarely, almost never, comment on the Middle East, for a few reasons (read about it here), but I had something to say about the current situation with Iran. As usual, I’m including a few chaotic pics to break up the text and make my SubStack a fun read. If you want 100% dry commentary, run away. :)
Fast forward to today.
Based on publicly available information, I still believe President Trump has decided to enter the war with Iran.
Whether or not that is a good strategic move is not a judgment call I am professionally qualified to make. However, there is one significant problem with entering a war with Iran at this time, and it’s simple logic.
The Problem
The math is simple here. A + B = Significant Long-Term National Security Risk
FACT A — We cannot get everything.
In 2025, there is no humanly possible way to account for 100% of the nuclear material and knowledge currently in Iran. That window closed years ago. We can bomb, invade, and search Iran for the next decade, including every known nuclear facility, factory, and convenience store — but we are probably not going to get everything, especially the knowledge base, which exists inside of people and every media you can possibly think of. Issue 2 - What if nuclear materials come into Iran from elsewhere, maybe NK? Then what?
FACT B - Short Term Gain, Long Term Problem
Suppose Israel and/or the United States bomb Iran into submission now and humiliate their military, which they can easily do. The conflict would probably be spectacular to watch on Fox News, CNN, and YouTube. Pete Hegseth might give an interview about our amazing military technology and we can watch videos of explosions; everyone would feel patriotic.
Fine. If the US military is going to fight anybody, may they win BIG.
And that will be an impressive short-term gain … BUT …. please think logically,. Bombing Iran now will also result in large groups of intelligent, angry, and humiliated people … vowing to hurt us later.
MORE FACTS
We cannot turn any government and military into dust and leave a civilian population to figure it out on their own. We will end up with a MadMax movie, complete with starvation, chaos, and in the case of Iran, a very angry warlord or 20 with nuclear weapon technology and/or material.
We cannot install a puppet government in Iran. It would last three years at best, and then would get beamed back to 1979, complete with a riled-up angry mob with nuclear weapon technology and/or material. ISIS Deluxe.
Negotiate?
I thought that’s what the United States was doing, but then the war started just before the last round of scheduled negotiations.
The downside of Israel bombing Iran as the Iranian delegation was on the way to negotiate with the USA is that Israel inadvertently killed any trust (if any) that Iran had in the USA or President Trump. That’s not a political statement (zero).
There are only two logical possibilities.
Possibility 1 - The United States deliberately set Iran up for a sneak attack.
Possibility 2 - Donald Trump was out of the loop with Israel’s war plans.
The point of this is not to second-guess US foreign policy, but looking at it from the Iran perspective, Iran has no logical reason to trust the United States right now in terms of our motivation and ability to control this war. To Iran, we are either evil or clueless.
Furthermore, we have no idea what comes next if this Iranian government topples, and no expert can tell us. Are we going to get democracy lite, or Mad Max 6? And if we get Mad Max 6, then what? Do we have to move the Marines from LA to Tehran?
Please understand, I have no answers to solve this crisis, and I mean to offend no one.
But I hope the powers that be are thinking this all the way through, complete with the plans for the day after. If Donald Trump is a genius negotiator and deal maker, now is the time for him to work his magic, before US pilots are put in harm’s way and we have to deal with a menu of bad possible outcomes.
Thanks for reading, cats. Ciao
Lee
